Betting Market Next PM and Date of next election, Buy Corbyn PM at 11/2 and Autumn Election at 6-1

Original Post 8th May. Go To Bottom of Page for odds screen caps and see them racing in.

Expect to see the odds come in sharply for an Autumn election a bet now for an autumn election is very good value at around 6-1 on. Also, Corbyn has to be a good value bet at 11/2 on the spread is fairly wide down to 3-1 on at William Hills expect the other Shops to pull in their offers as I say 11/2 from Paddy Power looks great value that can not last.

An Autumn election at 6-1 on and Corbyn as next PM at 11/2 on seems like a tenner well spent I’d say. This sort of generosity from the Bookies is to good to last.
Click Pictures for Larger Image.
https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/year-of-next-general-election

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-prime-minister

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Yesterday 9th July  Jeremy Corbyn Bookies Favourite With Gove and Javid Joint Second Favourites Rees Magg at 10-1 and Bozzer at 14’s. Jeremy Hunt at 16’s pre Appointment as Bozzers replacement.

Today 10th July  Sajid Javid now Bookies Favourite for PM and Next Tory Leader.




8th of may article Commentary 

  1. Mogg and Corbyn Joint Favourites for next PM. ( More or less.
    Jacob Rees-Mogg
    4 5 4 4 4 5 9/2 4 4
    Jeremy Corbyn
    4 9/2 3 11/2 11/2 9/2 5 9/2 4
    Michael Gove
    12 5 11 9 9 5 10 7 9
    Boris Johnson
    8 14 9 8 8 14 12 8 9
    Emily Thornbury
    14 14
    After the local elections I wondered if Thornberry might be a stalking horse for a Corbyn Challenge Truth is everyone knows the result was actually very good and in a General the purdah period will see a similar bounce to the Labour Party.
    I think May is now Toast and the sooner she is dispatched the better chance the Topries Have. Mogg would give Corbyn a run for his money but The Tories have still bnot been punished as the Lib Dems were for the Coalition and of course things have gone from bad to worse since then.
    I really think that the Rovian wishful thinking just stops people seeing it John to me it seems pretty clear. And apparently to the Bookies too, I take the Bookies over the Pollsters any day of the week frankly.
    Like
  2. Odds of another election this year must be shortening John so we will see if your assertion is correct. I suspect you are wrong and that The New Democratic Socialist Labour Party will do very well in the polls against a May Led Tory Party. The Tories will suffer until they rediscover real conservative values and ditch the Neo Liberal Voodoo.
    The Labour Party has a huge Membership and it overwhelmingly returned Jeremy Corbyn as its leader. Our politics is not a presidential Politics in spite of the best efforts of Blair and earlier Lady Thatcher.
    Did you ever watch Lexit the Movie or have you recently brushed up ion the tradition of Labour Party Skepticism of the EU. Peter Shore and Tony Benn etc.
    The minimum effort required is to watch these three clips in the Lexit movie
    pay particular attention to the Finnish Shipping Labour Law Case at 47 mins ( Viking Case, Estonian Flag of convenience). Or Train Privatisation in The EU at 16mins. Eu Austerity policies at 22mins.
    Peter Shore

Update May 11th Survation Polling You Gove earlier Published on BBC was largely done beofre Windruss Scandal.

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MMT and Money Creation Reading Lists. ( My Suggestions) #ConquestofDough

Towards a reading list

Posted on May 8 2018
A new commentator has said this morning:
Thanks to your writings on this blog, I am interested in learning about modern monetary theory in some detail. Doubtless your “The Joy of Tax” will contain a fair bit about it (and I will be getting my hands on a copy as soon as I can), but can you recommend any other books on the subject of MMT for the (mathematically literate, in my case) layman? For that matter, do you by chance have any other texts you regard as essential for non-specialists? Thank you very much.
A reading list is one of those things I keep on thinking of doing, and don’t achieve.
I know we have been here before. But suggestions please? And maybe they could then go in the Wiki (which is another thing I mean to do, and don’t get round to doing).
I would nominate my own books. But what then?
Steve Keen, Debunking Economics is my first choice for the vaguely mathematically literate.
Now, what would you add? I don’t want to dominate this, partly for my own interest.
And is there a volunteer who might then like to write it all up? I would be happy to include links to a vendor, but not Amazon, for obvious reasons. Waterstones would do for me: at least it keeps books on the High Street as well.
My Suggestions, Not sure if they will get published so here they are.
  1. Your comment is awaiting moderation.

    Bernard Leitaer The future of money bernard Leitaer pdf download
    Helmuth Kreutz the Mioney Syndrome.
    I find Wrays writing much easier to digest than Mitchells this Paper he did for the Levy Institute is excellent.
    http://www.levyinstitute.org/pubs/wp_717.pdf
    full list for wray on Levy Institute web site
    http://www.levyinstitute.org/publications/l-randall-wray
    This is an excellent video Series from Mike Maloney
    What I have found in the ten plus years I have been studying this seriously is that the questions have become sharper I started really with Tomlinson and the Michael Journal https://www.michaeljournal.org/
    There are some great documentary films as well I have embedded many of them on this web page.
  2. May 8 2018 at 2:05 pm
  3. Neil Wilson is for me the best Blogger on MMT his analysis and critical thought is peerless in the field.
    https://medium.com/@aldursys
#ConquestofDough

To Richard Murphy and the MMT Witch-finder Generals.

They [the Marxists] maintain that only a dictatorship—their dictatorship, of course—can create the will of the people, while our answer to this is: No dictatorship can have any other aim but that of self-perpetuation, and it can beget only slavery in the people tolerating it; freedom can be created only by freedom, that is, by a universal rebellion on the part of the people and free organization of the toiling masses from the bottom up.´´
Mikhail Bakunin, Statism and Anarchism[36
Witchhunts and Civil Discourse.
 
 
 
 “A fire, a fire is burning! I hear the boot of Lucifer, I see his filthy face! And it is my face, and yours, Danforth! For them that quail to bring men out of ignorance, as I have quailed, and as you quail now when you know in all your black hearts that this be fraud – God damns our kind especially, and we will burn, we will burn together!”
― Arthur Miller, The Crucible
 

Bibtex
@techreport{740ca41df36047e6ab2de7c41a601e4a,
title = “Seigniorage in the 21st Century: A Study of the Profits from Money Creation in the United Kingdom and Denmark”,
abstract = “This paper develops a new theory of seigniorage suited to modern economies where the majority of money is created not by the state or central bank but by commercial banks and other monetary financial institutions via their lending activity. We identify four different forms of seigniorage that take account of the modern institutional separation between the state, the central bank, commercial banks and the non-bank private sector in terms of their identities as ‘money creators’ and ‘money users’. The new typology differentiates between seigniorage profits arising from interest rate spreads on stocks of created money and profits arising from flows of interest payments on newly created assets. We illustrate our theoretical framework with empirical data on commercial bank seigniorage and related variables in the United Kingdom and the Denmark over the past quarter century.”,
keywords = “Seigniorage, Money creation, Central banks, Banks, Financial intermediation, Interest rates, Financialization, Seigniorage, Money creation, Central banks, Banks, Financial intermediation, Interest rates, Financialization”,
author = “Ole Bjerg and Duncan McCann and Laurie Macfarlane and {Hougaard Nielsen}, Rasmus and Josh Ryan-Collins”,
year = “2017”,
language = “English”,
publisher = “Copenhagen Business School “,
address = “Denmark”,
type = “WorkingPaper”,
institution = “Copenhagen Business School “,
}
http://openarchive.cbs.dk/bitstream/handle/10398/9454/CBS-NEF%20%28January%202017%29%20Seigniorage%20in%20the%2021%20Century%20CBS%20WP.pdf?sequence=1

This Paper is well worth Reading Ole Berg is a philosopher who studies the epistemology of Money and it is in the meta-physics DOgmas and Catechisms of the differing schools of thought where the Devils own Details may be found.

This Paper has a Contributor called Josh Ryan Collins He used to be with the new economics Foundation and he has worked quite a lot with Positive Money.

Josh’s work https://www.ucl.ac.uk/bartlett/public-purpose/josh-ryan-collins and Oles Work http://research.cbs.dk/en/persons/ole-bjerg(925c9d02-6d89-4a1b-8608-147cbf0be547)/publications.html  Have been essential to the empirical research being done on Modern Monetary Practices they have tested some of the Theories and found them wanting they have this in Common of Course with Richard Werner.  https://www.southampton.ac.uk/business-school/about/staff/werner.page

In Defining their Boundary Conditions for defining terms to be compared this is a Key part of the introduction to this paper.

B) Who issues money?
Since seigniorage is accrued by the creator of money any concept of seigniorage also has
to make an assumption about who issues money. The question here is not simply whether
the state or commercial banks should be included as creators of money. Even within the literature
on central bank seigniorage, there are differences in the way that the state as the creator
of money is conceived. While some authors treat the state as one coherent issuer of
money (see for instance Friedman 1971; Drazen 1985) others take into account the institutional
separation between the central bank and the government (see for instance Rovelli
1994; Pedersen and Wagener 2000). We concur with Klein and Neumann (1990) that definitions
of seigniorage should pay close attention to particular institutional circumstances in
different countries as these may have profound implications for the way that money creation
is turned into seigniorage. This includes not only the relation between the central bank and
the government but also the relations between commercial banks, the central bank and the
government.

I have also been re-reading Lietaers 2005 Paper on Integral approaches to Money this morning, it’s pretty incisive stuff not much in the way of Twaddle. http://www.lietaer.com/images/Integral_Money.pdf  , The Hyper Rationality of MMT Dogmatists over MMP Students should serve as a warning to us all.

2. The more hyper-rational a market, the more likely it is to get caught in a mania.
Mythologically, as shown in the Bacchae, it is the Apollonian ruler, not those who
embrace the “messiness” of the Dionysian space, who end up being dismembered.
In other words, the more we defend ourselves against the Dionysian uncertainty, the more
likely that we attract his “madness.” This could explain why the most sophisticated
markets are the ones who get caught in manias. It is because of their very sophistication
that the illusion of control is most prevailing. The more tools we accumulate to ensure a
permanent Apollonian certainty, the more likely it is that we will attract a Dionysian
outburst.
Stanley Passy concluded: “The idea that anyone can see the future with certitude carries
within the dark and deadly
shadow of panic. Dispassionate
portfolio management,
technical analysis and
computer modeling live in
parallel with merger manias,”

Finally, Page 50 of the Full PDF of PM’s proposals deals with common criticisms, The Article here falling into the “Common” Category.
http://positivemoney.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/SovereignMoney-AnIntroduction-20161214.pdf
6. RESPONSES TO COMMON
CRITIQUES
Five themes are common amongst the various critiques of the sovereign money approach:
1. Supply of Credit: “There would be too little credit….leading to deflation and recession.”
2. Interest rates: “Interest rates would be too high and too volatile.”
3. Near monies: “It is futile to try to control private money creation because near monies
will immediately emerge from other parts of the financial system.”
4. Shadow banking: “It was the shadow banking sector that caused the last financial
crisis. By looking at commercial banks, sovereign money reforms focus on the wrong
part of the financial system.”
5. Monetarism: “This is just modern monetarism, and will be as harmful as the failed
monetarist experiments of the 1980s.”
Positive Money is currently undertaking further research on each of these areas, but we
have addressed each of these arguments briefly below. (The following sections on the
Supply of Credit, Near Monies and Shadow Banking are adapted from Dyson et al. (2016)
which first appeared in the Cambridge Journal of Economics.)

As I have noted in my previous posts there is a lot of second-hand re-treaded rubber in this debate and most of it does not go into the deeper academic literature, our host has already dismissed much of that newer writing as Twaddle:

Tolstoy, Leo. What is Art? p. 124 (1899). In The Kingdom of God Is Within You (1893), he similarly declared, “The most difficult subjects can be explained to the most slow-witted man if he has not formed any idea of them already; but the simplest thing cannot be made clear to the most intelligent man if he is firmly persuaded that he knows already, without a shadow of doubt, what is laid before him.” (ch. 3). Translated from the Russian by Constance Garnett, New York, 1894. Project Gutenberg edition released November 2002. Retrieved 2009-08-24.

See part 1 Particularly for this un published response to Richard Murphy’s Authoritarian and Intolerant Comment.
http://letthemconfectsweeterlies.blogspot.se/2018/05/why-richard-murphy-disagrees-with.html

One of my Main criticisms of the MMT as Catechism is the quality of its witch-hunters and the intolerance of its would be Commissars.

Roger
I think you are making excuses to publish your own literature
With respect, I am bored by being told what I do not know by you, and candidly, I think you’re promoting some pretty extreme twaddle which has no place here
Future comments will be deleted
Richard

 

Your comment is awaiting moderation.

Richard,

Your last comment above is Childish frankly and does not engage with the points which I make The links are all illustrative.
Bernard Lietaers work, Helmuth Kreutz’s Work, Magrit Kennedy’s work and Positives Money’s work is far from twaddle.
Writing Polemics masquerading as Objective critique founded in evidence is dishonest, I guess the truth hurts. Ollie Bergs Paper on Bitcoin is excellent perhaps you find philosophy in the field of political economy objectionable, I do not.

When Richard says further comments will be deleted, what he means is they will not be published, in common with many people on the Web Richard censors his own comments section,pro actively, what he dislikes or does not agree with or in the Web parlance “Calls Him Out” he simply does not even allow to be posted, much like the Guardian does.

A more Honest Title would be Why I Think Positive Money are Mistaken in their Policy position on Monetary policy.

Off Guardian the antidote to the Authoritarian Stalinist tendencies of Gatekeepers of Liberal democracy.

https://off-guardian.org/